NHL report card: week of 2026-05-18 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
20.0%
hit rate
0.313
Brier score
1 of 5 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Golden Knights at AvalancheCOL 62.3% pre-game — final COL 1–VGK 3
- Golden Knights at AvalancheCOL 61.5% pre-game — final COL 2–VGK 4
- Canadiens at SabresBUF 55.6% pre-game — final BUF 2–MTL 3
- Canadiens at HurricanesCAR 53.9% pre-game — final CAR 2–MTL 6
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Canadiens at HurricanesCAR 55.6% pre-game — final CAR 3–MTL 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadiens at Sabres Mon, May 18 | BUF 55.6% · MTL 44.4% | BUF 2–MTL 3 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Avalanche Thu, May 21 | COL 61.5% · VGK 38.5% | COL 2–VGK 4 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Hurricanes Fri, May 22 | CAR 53.9% · MTL 46.1% | CAR 2–MTL 6 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Avalanche Sat, May 23 | COL 62.3% · VGK 37.7% | COL 1–VGK 3 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Hurricanes Sat, May 23 | CAR 55.6% · MTL 44.4% | CAR 3–MTL 2 | Hit |
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