NHL weekly recap: week of 2026-05-04 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 58% across 12 games; season-to-date: 53%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 56% — final PHI 2–CAR 3
- Home Field Advantage (favors PHI)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wild at Avalanche Mon, May 4 | COL 55% • MIN 45% | COL 9–MIN 6 | Hit |
| Flyers at Hurricanes Mon, May 4 | CAR 56% • PHI 44% | CAR 3–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Ducks at Golden Knights Tue, May 5 | VGK 56% • ANA 44% | VGK 3–ANA 1 | Hit |
| Wild at Avalanche Wed, May 6 | COL 56% • MIN 44% | COL 5–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Sabres Wed, May 6 | BUF 55% • MTL 45% | BUF 4–MTL 2 | Hit |
| Ducks at Golden Knights Thu, May 7 | VGK 56% • ANA 44% | VGK 1–ANA 3 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Flyers Fri, May 8 | PHI 56% • CAR 44% | PHI 1–CAR 4 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Sabres Fri, May 8 | BUF 56% • MTL 44% | BUF 1–MTL 5 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Ducks Sat, May 9 | ANA 55% • VGK 45% | ANA 2–VGK 6 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Flyers Sat, May 9 | PHI 56% • CAR 44% | PHI 2–CAR 3 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Wild Sun, May 10 | MIN 56% • COL 44% | MIN 5–COL 1 | Hit |
| Sabres at Canadiens Sun, May 10 | MTL 56% • BUF 44% | MTL 6–BUF 2 | Hit |