Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames
Calgary Flames 52% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Flames:
- Home Field Advantage. Flames are 3-4 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 3-3 on the road
- Rest Days. Flames rest advantage (3 days rest) over Maple Leafs (4 days rest)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Maple Leafs at Flames
The Maple Leafs visit the Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.
Our model gives the Flames a 52% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Maple Leafs will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Flames (low): Flames are 3-4 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 3-3 on the road
- Recent Form favors the Maple Leafs (low): Maple Leafs (6-4) in better form than Flames (3-6)
- ELO Rating favors the Maple Leafs (low): Flames ELO 1439 vs Maple Leafs ELO 1477 (diff: -38)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Calgary Flames
- Recent FormFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- ELO RatingFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Rest DaysFavors Calgary Flames
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Flames
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Flames has a 52% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB.