Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Colts defeated the Patriots 25-24.
Our model predicted the Patriots would win with 56% confidence, but the Colts pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Patriots and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
- Turnover Differential was neutral and a contributing factor: No turnover stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Colts won in a close game
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Patriots has a 56% win probability, while Colts has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.