NBA report card: week of 2026-05-18 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
71.4%
hit rate
0.226
Brier score
5 of 7 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Spurs at ThunderOKC 68.4% pre-game — final OKC 115–SAS 122
- Cavaliers at PistonsDET 67.5% pre-game — final DET 94–CLE 125
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Spurs at ThunderOKC 69.7% pre-game — final OKC 122–SAS 113
- Cavaliers at KnicksNYK 67.2% pre-game — final NYK 109–CLE 93
- Cavaliers at KnicksNYK 65.9% pre-game — final NYK 115–CLE 104
- Thunder at SpursOKC 59.4% pre-game — final SAS 108–OKC 123
- Knicks at CavaliersNYK 58.1% pre-game — final CLE 108–NYK 121
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers at Pistons Mon, May 18 | DET 67.5% · CLE 32.5% | DET 94–CLE 125 | Miss |
| Spurs at Thunder Tue, May 19 | OKC 68.4% · SAS 31.6% | OKC 115–SAS 122 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Knicks Wed, May 20 | NYK 65.9% · CLE 34.1% | NYK 115–CLE 104 | Hit |
| Spurs at Thunder Thu, May 21 | OKC 69.7% · SAS 30.3% | OKC 122–SAS 113 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Knicks Fri, May 22 | NYK 67.2% · CLE 32.8% | NYK 109–CLE 93 | Hit |
| Thunder at Spurs Sat, May 23 | SAS 40.6% · OKC 59.4% | SAS 108–OKC 123 | Hit |
| Knicks at Cavaliers Sun, May 24 | CLE 41.9% · NYK 58.1% | CLE 108–NYK 121 | Hit |
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