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Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs

NBAregular • 2026-2027 Season
completed
Spurs logo
Spurs
San Antonio
108
vs
Thunder logo
Thunder
Oklahoma City
123
SAS 41%59% OKC

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VenueFrost Bank Center
San Antonio, TX

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Thunder (away)
Spurs (home)
59%
Win probability
41%
1
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0
Thunder won 108-123

Thunder won convincingly

Prediction CorrectWe predicted Thunder at 59%

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

OKC
SAS
Defensive Efficiency
Home Field Advantage
Recent Form
Offensive Efficiency
Favours OKC|Favours SAS

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Defensive Efficiency

Thunder defense (107.5 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (111.7 Opp PPG)

Thunder

Recent Form

Thunder (56-15) in better form than Spurs (53-18)

Thunder

Offensive Efficiency

Similar offensive efficiency (118.8 vs 118.5 PPG)

Neutral

Turnover Differential

Spurs turnover differential (+0) vs Thunder (+0)

Neutral
Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 5/22/2026, 8:30:02 AM

Key Players

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Ajay MitchellG
Nikola TopicG
Cason WallaceG
Aaron WigginsG

Spurs

Dylan HarperG
Stephon CastleG
Devin VassellG
De'Aaron FoxG
Jordan McLaughlinG

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NBA Win Probability

How we calculate NBA game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Back-to-Back Fatigue

How schedule and rest affect NBA game outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Spurs has a 41% win probability, while Thunder has a 59% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX.

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