NBA report card: week of 2026-05-11 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
66.7%
hit rate
0.219
Brier score
4 of 6 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Cavaliers at PistonsDET 69.7% pre-game — final DET 113–CLE 117
- Pistons at CavaliersDET 59.7% pre-game — final CLE 112–DET 103
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Thunder at LakersOKC 75.6% pre-game — final LAL 110–OKC 115
- Timberwolves at SpursSAS 69.8% pre-game — final SAS 126–MIN 97
- Spurs at TimberwolvesSAS 59.9% pre-game — final MIN 109–SAS 139
- Pistons at CavaliersDET 59.7% pre-game — final CLE 94–DET 115
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pistons at Cavaliers Tue, May 12 | CLE 40.3% · DET 59.7% | CLE 112–DET 103 | Miss |
| Thunder at Lakers Tue, May 12 | LAL 24.4% · OKC 75.6% | LAL 110–OKC 115 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Spurs Wed, May 13 | SAS 69.8% · MIN 30.2% | SAS 126–MIN 97 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Pistons Thu, May 14 | DET 69.7% · CLE 30.3% | DET 113–CLE 117 | Miss |
| Pistons at Cavaliers Fri, May 15 | CLE 40.3% · DET 59.7% | CLE 94–DET 115 | Hit |
| Spurs at Timberwolves Sat, May 16 | MIN 40.1% · SAS 59.9% | MIN 109–SAS 139 | Hit |
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