NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-02-23 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 67% across 6 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 64% — final GSW 101–LAL 129
- Defensive Efficiency (favors GSW)
- Home Field Advantage (favors GSW)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors GSW)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nets at Celtics Sat, Feb 28 | BOS 90% • BKN 10% | BOS 148–BKN 111 | Hit |
| Knicks at Bucks Sat, Feb 28 | MIL 23% • NYK 77% | MIL 98–NYK 127 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Hornets Sat, Feb 28 | CHA 75% • POR 25% | CHA 109–POR 93 | Hit |
| Lakers at Warriors Sun, Mar 1 | GSW 64% • LAL 36% | GSW 101–LAL 129 | Miss |
| Pelicans at Jazz Sun, Mar 1 | UTA 45% • NOP 55% | UTA 105–NOP 115 | Hit |
| Spurs at Knicks Sun, Mar 1 | NYK 50% • SAS 50% | NYK 114–SAS 89 | Miss |