San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings
Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs head-to-head
San Antonio Spurs 77% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Spurs:
- Defensive Efficiency. Spurs defense (115.0 Opp PPG) better than Kings (124.5 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Kings ELO 1327 vs Spurs ELO 1593 (diff: -265)
- Injuries. Spurs healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Kings 3 out, 0 doubtful
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 61% (−16)
- If the rating edge were neutral: SAS 70% (−7)
- If the injury edge were neutral: SAS 72% (−5)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 80% (+3)
Win probability movement
SAC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Spurs at Kings
The Spurs visit the Kings at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, CA in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Spurs a 77% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Kings to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Spurs (high): Spurs defense (115.0 Opp PPG) better than Kings (124.5 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Spurs (high): Kings ELO 1327 vs Spurs ELO 1593 (diff: -265)
- Injuries favors the Spurs (medium): Spurs healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Kings 3 out, 0 doubtful
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Kings have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Spurs have 2.
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- ELO RatingFavors San Antonio Spurs
- InjuriesFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Sacramento Kings
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Sacramento Kings
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Spurs defense (115.0 Opp PPG) better than Kings (124.5 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Kings offense (108.0 PPG) outpaces Spurs (107.0 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Kings turnover differential (+0) vs Spurs (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
ELO Rating
Kings ELO 1327 vs Spurs ELO 1593 (diff: -265)
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Injury Report
Kings
Spurs
Key Players
Spurs
Kings
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Sacramento Kings
- Previous game89%LAL win probability
- Next game-No model yet
San Antonio Spurs
- Previous game60%SAS win probability
- Next game88%POR win probability
Other games on Nov 7, 2026
- 87%BOS win probability
- 92%ATL win probability
- 61%PHI win probability
- 77%MIN win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Kings has a 23% win probability, while Spurs has a 77% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, CA.