Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers head-to-head
Portland Trail Blazers 82% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Trail Blazers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Trail Blazers offense (126.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (83.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Trail Blazers defense (101.5 Opp PPG) better than Suns (124.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Suns ELO 1485 vs Trail Blazers ELO 1557 (diff: -73)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: POR 67% (−15)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: POR 67% (−15)
- If the rating edge were neutral: POR 80% (−2)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: POR 84% (+2)
Win probability movement
PHX home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Trail Blazers at Suns
The Trail Blazers visit the Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Trail Blazers a 82% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Suns to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Trail Blazers (high): Trail Blazers offense (126.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (83.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Trail Blazers (high): Trail Blazers defense (101.5 Opp PPG) better than Suns (124.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Trail Blazers (low): Suns ELO 1485 vs Trail Blazers ELO 1557 (diff: -73)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Suns have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Trail Blazers have 1.
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Portland Trail Blazers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Portland Trail Blazers
- ELO RatingFavors Portland Trail Blazers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Phoenix Suns
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Trail Blazers offense (126.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (83.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Trail Blazers defense (101.5 Opp PPG) better than Suns (124.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Suns turnover differential (+0) vs Trail Blazers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Injury Report
Suns
Trail Blazers
Key Players
Trail Blazers
Suns
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Phoenix Suns
- Previous game77%GSW win probability
- Next game54%ORL win probability
Portland Trail Blazers
- Previous game61%POR win probability
- Next game67%POR win probability
Other games on Nov 5, 2026
- 75%DET win probability
- 89%ATL win probability
- 71%NYK win probability
- 90%BKN win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Suns has a 18% win probability, while Trail Blazers has a 82% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ.