Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder head-to-head
Memphis Grizzlies 61% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Grizzlies:
- Offensive Efficiency. Grizzlies offense (117.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
- Injuries. Grizzlies healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Thunder 3 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Grizzlies are 2-1 at home this season; Thunder are 1-2 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 41% (−20)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 78% (+17)
- If the injury edge were neutral: MEM 49% (−12)
- If the rating edge were neutral: MEM 69% (+8)
Win probability movement
MEM home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Thunder at Grizzlies
The Thunder visit the Grizzlies at FedExForum in Memphis, TN in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Grizzlies a 61% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Thunder to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Grizzlies (high): Grizzlies offense (117.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Thunder (high): Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (105.5 Opp PPG)
- Injuries favors the Grizzlies (high): Grizzlies healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Thunder 3 out, 0 doubtful
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Grizzlies have 1 player(s) ruled out, while the Thunder have 3.
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- InjuriesFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Grizzlies offense (117.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (105.5 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Grizzlies turnover differential (+0) vs Thunder (+0)
Injuries
Grizzlies healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Thunder 3 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
ELO Rating
Grizzlies ELO 1402 vs Thunder ELO 1642 (diff: -240)
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Injury Report
Grizzlies
Thunder
Key Players
Thunder
Grizzlies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Memphis Grizzlies
- Previous game88%MEM win probability
- Next game
No next game this season
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Previous game68%OKC win probability
- Next game64%OKC win probability
Other games on Nov 7, 2026
- 87%BOS win probability
- 92%ATL win probability
- 61%PHI win probability
- 77%MIN win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Grizzlies has a 61% win probability, while Thunder has a 39% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at FedExForum in Memphis, TN.