New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans head-to-head
Golden State Warriors 56% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Warriors:
- Defensive Efficiency. Warriors defense (123.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (128.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Warriors are 3-1 at home this season; Pelicans are 2-3 on the road
- ELO Rating. Warriors ELO 1464 vs Pelicans ELO 1432 (diff: +32)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: GSW 74% (+18)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: GSW 39% (−17)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: GSW 50% (−6)
- If the rating edge were neutral: GSW 54% (−2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Pelicans at Warriors
The Pelicans visit the Warriors at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Warriors a 56% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Pelicans to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Pelicans (high): Pelicans offense (124.7 PPG) outpaces Warriors (111.7 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Warriors (high): Warriors defense (123.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (128.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Warriors (medium): Warriors are 3-1 at home this season; Pelicans are 2-3 on the road
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Golden State Warriors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Golden State Warriors
- ELO RatingFavors Golden State Warriors
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Pelicans offense (124.7 PPG) outpaces Warriors (111.7 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Warriors defense (123.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (128.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Warriors turnover differential (+0) vs Pelicans (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Pelicans
Warriors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Golden State Warriors
- Previous game62%GSW win probability
- Next game89%HOU win probability
New Orleans Pelicans
- Previous game52%DEN win probability
- Next game57%NOP win probability
Other games on Nov 9, 2026
- 88%DET win probability
- 59%ATL win probability
- 51%CHA win probability
- 88%TOR win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Warriors has a 56% win probability, while Pelicans has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA.