Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs head-to-head
San Antonio Spurs 60% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Spurs:
- Injuries. Spurs healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Mavericks 6 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating. Spurs ELO 1593 vs Mavericks ELO 1423 (diff: +169)
- Defensive Efficiency. Spurs defense (115.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (116.5 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 77% (+17)
- If the injury edge were neutral: SAS 45% (−15)
- If the rating edge were neutral: SAS 54% (−6)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 55% (−5)
Win probability movement
SAS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Mavericks at Spurs
The Mavericks visit the Spurs at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Spurs a 60% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Mavericks to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Mavericks (high): Mavericks offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Spurs (107.0 PPG)
- Injuries favors the Spurs (high): Spurs healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Mavericks 6 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating favors the Spurs (medium): Spurs ELO 1593 vs Mavericks ELO 1423 (diff: +169)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Spurs have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Mavericks have 6.
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Dallas Mavericks
- InjuriesFavors San Antonio Spurs
- ELO RatingFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Mavericks offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Spurs (107.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Spurs defense (115.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (116.5 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Spurs turnover differential (+0) vs Mavericks (+0)
Injuries
Spurs healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Mavericks 6 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Injury Report
Spurs
Mavericks
Key Players
Mavericks
Spurs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
San Antonio Spurs
- Previous game68%SAS win probability
- Next game77%SAS win probability
Dallas Mavericks
- Previous game80%DAL win probability
- Next game66%DAL win probability
Other games on Nov 5, 2026
- 75%DET win probability
- 89%ATL win probability
- 71%NYK win probability
- 90%BKN win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Spurs has a 60% win probability, while Mavericks has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX.