MLB2026 season
Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, Jun 21, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
67%
2 of 3 decided games
Meetings graded
3
2026
Correct calls
2
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Tampa Bay Rays
No recent factors yet.
Washington Nationals
- Injuries — Nationals healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mets (8 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency — Nationals offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Mets (4.3 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Nationals are 31-39 at home this season; Mets are 34-40 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
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