MLB2026 season
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, May 24, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
75%
3 of 4 decided games
Meetings graded
4
2026
Correct calls
3
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Injuries — Pirates healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Tigers (13 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency — Pirates offense (4.7 R/G) outpaces Tigers (4.5 R/G)
Toronto Blue Jays
- Defensive Efficiency — Blue Jays pitching/defense (4.3 RA/G) better than Reds (5.1 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Blue Jays are 36-34 at home this season; Reds are 33-40 on the road
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.