MLB2026 season
Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Wed, Sep 16, 2026
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
5
vs
DET
Detroit Tigers
1
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
40%
2 of 5 decided games
Meetings graded
5
2026
Correct calls
2
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Detroit Tigers
- Defensive Efficiency — Tigers pitching/defense (4.0 RA/G) better than Pirates (4.6 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Tigers are 36-32 at home this season; Pirates are 31-40 on the road
- ELO Rating — Tigers ELO 1529 vs Pirates ELO 1496 (diff: +33)
Toronto Blue Jays
- Defensive Efficiency — Blue Jays pitching/defense (4.3 RA/G) better than Reds (5.1 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Blue Jays are 36-34 at home this season; Reds are 33-40 on the road
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