MLB2026 season
Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Thu, Sep 17, 2026
COL
Colorado Rockies
2
vs
SD
San Diego Padres
9
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- SD at COLThu, Sep 17, 2026—SD 9–2
- SD at COLWed, Sep 16, 2026—SD 9–3
- COL at SDWed, Jul 29, 2026SD 56%SD 1–3
- COL at SDTue, Jul 28, 2026SD 56%SD 7–8
- SD at COLThu, Apr 23, 2026COL 55%SD 10–8
- SD at COLWed, Apr 22, 2026COL 55%COL 3–8
- SD at COLTue, Apr 21, 2026COL 53%SD 1–0
- COL at SDSun, Apr 12, 2026SD 55%SD 2–7
- COL at SDSat, Apr 11, 2026SD 55%SD 5–9
- COL at SDFri, Apr 10, 2026SD 55%SD 2–5
- COL at SDThu, Apr 9, 2026SD 55%SD 3–7
- COL at SDFri, Mar 20, 2026SD 55%COL 9–3
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10 decided games
Meetings graded
10
2026
Correct calls
7
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Colorado Rockies
- Injuries — Rockies healthier (7 out, 0 doubtful) vs Chicago White Sox (9 out, 0 doubtful)
San Diego Padres
- Injuries — Padres healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage — Padres are 46-31 at home this season; Brewers are 42-31 on the road
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.