MLB2026 season
Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, May 10, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
75%
3 of 4 decided games
Meetings graded
4
2026
Correct calls
3
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Chicago Cubs
- Offensive Efficiency — Cubs offense (5.2 R/G) outpaces Padres (4.5 R/G)
Texas Rangers
- Defensive Efficiency — Rangers pitching/defense (4.4 RA/G) better than Twins (4.9 RA/G)
- Injuries — Rangers healthier (10 out, 0 doubtful) vs Twins (9 out, 0 doubtful)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.