MLB2026 season
Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, Jun 28, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- WSH at BALSun, Jun 28, 2026BAL 52%WSH 6–4
- WSH at BALSat, Jun 27, 2026BAL 52%WSH 4–3
- WSH at BALFri, Jun 26, 2026BAL 53%BAL 1–3
- BAL at WSHSun, May 17, 2026WSH 58%BAL 7–3
- BAL at WSHSat, May 16, 2026WSH 58%WSH 3–13
- BAL at WSHFri, May 15, 2026WSH 53%WSH 2–3
- BAL at WSHMon, Mar 23, 2026WSH 55%BAL 2–0
- WSH at BALSun, Mar 22, 2026BAL 55%BAL 1–8
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
50%
4 of 8 decided games
Meetings graded
8
2026
Correct calls
4
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Baltimore Orioles
No recent factors yet.
Washington Nationals
- Injuries — Nationals healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mets (8 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency — Nationals offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Mets (4.3 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Nationals are 31-39 at home this season; Mets are 34-40 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
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