NHL report card: week of 2026-09-28 (2026-27)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
52.8%
hit rate
0.265
Brier score
19 of 36 decided
Season to date
59.1%
hit rate
0.244
Brier score
104 of 176 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Oilers at CanucksVAN 72.4% pre-game — final VAN 7–EDM 9
- Wild at PredatorsNSH 71.0% pre-game — final NSH 1–MIN 3
- Penguins at FlyersPHI 68.8% pre-game — final PHI 0–PIT 7
- Panthers at HurricanesCAR 65.5% pre-game — final CAR 0–FLA 1
- Ducks at Golden KnightsVGK 65.2% pre-game — final VGK 3–ANA 4
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Sabres at Blue JacketsCBJ 73.4% pre-game — final CBJ 6–BUF 3
- Stars at PredatorsNSH 71.4% pre-game — final NSH 2–DAL 1
- Blackhawks at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 69.5% pre-game — final UTA 6–CHI 0
- Flyers at DevilsNJD 65.8% pre-game — final NJD 3–PHI 2
- Lightning at RangersNYR 64.3% pre-game — final NYR 5–TBL 1
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers at Hurricanes Tue, Sep 29 | CAR 65.5% · FLA 34.5% | CAR 0–FLA 1 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Maple Leafs Tue, Sep 29 | TOR 40.5% · MTL 59.5% | TOR 2–MTL 3 | Hit |
| Rangers at Bruins Wed, Sep 30 | BOS 49.0% · NYR 51.0% | BOS 3–NYR 0 | Miss |
| Canucks at Oilers Wed, Sep 30 | EDM 49.0% · VAN 51.0% | EDM 5–VAN 6 | Hit |
| Blackhawks at Golden Knights Wed, Sep 30 | VGK 63.1% · CHI 36.9% | VGK 5–CHI 2 | Hit |
| Islanders at Maple Leafs Wed, Sep 30 | TOR 40.0% · NYI 60.0% | TOR 2–NYI 1 | Miss |
| Penguins at Flyers Wed, Sep 30 | PHI 68.8% · PIT 31.2% | PHI 0–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Kings at Avalanche Thu, Oct 1 | COL 47.2% · LAK 52.8% | COL 8–LAK 4 | Miss |
| Sabres at Blue Jackets Thu, Oct 1 | CBJ 73.4% · BUF 26.7% | CBJ 6–BUF 3 | Hit |
| Flyers at Devils Thu, Oct 1 | NJD 65.8% · PHI 34.2% | NJD 3–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Lightning at Rangers Thu, Oct 1 | NYR 64.3% · TBL 35.7% | NYR 5–TBL 1 | Hit |
| Wild at Predators Fri, Oct 2 | NSH 71.0% · MIN 29.0% | NSH 1–MIN 3 | Miss |
| Kraken at Flames Fri, Oct 2 | CGY 57.0% · SEA 43.0% | CGY 1–SEA 6 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Utah Hockey Club Fri, Oct 2 | UTA 69.5% · CHI 30.5% | UTA 6–CHI 0 | Hit |
| Panthers at Sharks Fri, Oct 2 | SJS 38.0% · FLA 62.0% | SJS 4–FLA 3 | Miss |
| Oilers at Canucks Fri, Oct 2 | VAN 72.4% · EDM 27.6% | VAN 7–EDM 9 | Miss |
| Rangers at Red Wings Fri, Oct 2 | DET 49.4% · NYR 50.6% | DET 0–NYR 2 | Hit |
| Capitals at Hurricanes Fri, Oct 2 | CAR 59.4% · WSH 40.6% | CAR 2–WSH 5 | Miss |
| Bruins at Jets Sat, Oct 3 | WPG 42.6% · BOS 57.4% | WPG 3–BOS 4 | Hit |
| Blues at Stars Sat, Oct 3 | DAL 47.7% · STL 52.3% | DAL 0–STL 4 | Hit |
| Ducks at Golden Knights Sat, Oct 3 | VGK 65.2% · ANA 34.8% | VGK 3–ANA 4 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Blue Jackets Sat, Oct 3 | CBJ 64.7% · UTA 35.3% | CBJ 1–UTA 4 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Sabres Sat, Oct 3 | BUF 49.5% · CHI 50.5% | BUF 4–CHI 3 | Miss |
| Kraken at Oilers Sat, Oct 3 | EDM 37.6% · SEA 62.4% | EDM 3–SEA 1 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Flyers Sat, Oct 3 | PHI 48.0% · CAR 52.0% | PHI 2–CAR 3 | Hit |
| Capitals at Lightning Sat, Oct 3 | TBL 40.8% · WSH 59.2% | TBL 3–WSH 1 | Miss |
| Senators at Maple Leafs Sat, Oct 3 | TOR 46.9% · OTT 53.1% | TOR 2–OTT 3 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Penguins Sat, Oct 3 | PIT 60.6% · MTL 39.4% | PIT 6–MTL 5 | Hit |
| Devils at Islanders Sat, Oct 3 | NYI 52.4% · NJD 47.6% | NYI 6–NJD 0 | Hit |
| Stars at Predators Sun, Oct 4 | NSH 71.4% · DAL 28.6% | NSH 2–DAL 1 | Hit |
| Bruins at Wild Sun, Oct 4 | MIN 54.0% · BOS 46.0% | MIN 4–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Blues at Avalanche Sun, Oct 4 | COL 54.1% · STL 45.9% | COL 6–STL 1 | Hit |
| Kings at Sharks Sun, Oct 4 | SJS 53.0% · LAK 46.9% | SJS 5–LAK 4 | Hit |
| Flames at Canucks Sun, Oct 4 | VAN 48.9% · CGY 51.1% | VAN 4–CGY 1 | Miss |
| Jets at Red Wings Sun, Oct 4 | DET 51.9% · WPG 48.1% | DET 2–WPG 3 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Rangers Sun, Oct 4 | NYR 62.6% · UTA 37.4% | NYR 4–UTA 2 | Hit |
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