NHL report card: week of 2026-06-08 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
50.0%
hit rate
0.253
Brier score
1 of 2 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Hurricanes at Golden KnightsVGK 55.6% pre-game — final VGK 3–CAR 5
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Golden Knights at HurricanesCAR 55.6% pre-game — final CAR 4–VGK 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes at Golden Knights Wed, Jun 10 | VGK 55.6% · CAR 44.4% | VGK 3–CAR 5 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Hurricanes Fri, Jun 12 | CAR 55.6% · VGK 44.4% | CAR 4–VGK 2 | Hit |
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Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.