NHL weekly recap: week of 2026-05-11 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 38% across 8 games; season-to-date: 53%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 56% — final BUF 3–MTL 6
- Home Field Advantage (favors BUF)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Knights at Ducks Mon, May 11 | ANA 55% • VGK 45% | ANA 4–VGK 3 | Hit |
| Avalanche at Wild Tue, May 12 | MIN 56% • COL 44% | MIN 2–COL 5 | Miss |
| Sabres at Canadiens Tue, May 12 | MTL 56% • BUF 44% | MTL 2–BUF 3 | Miss |
| Ducks at Golden Knights Wed, May 13 | VGK 56% • ANA 44% | VGK 3–ANA 2 | Hit |
| Wild at Avalanche Thu, May 14 | COL 56% • MIN 44% | COL 4–MIN 3 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Sabres Thu, May 14 | BUF 56% • MTL 44% | BUF 3–MTL 6 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Ducks Fri, May 15 | ANA 55% • VGK 45% | ANA 1–VGK 5 | Miss |
| Sabres at Canadiens Sun, May 17 | MTL 56% • BUF 44% | MTL 3–BUF 8 | Miss |