NFL week 6 report card (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
42.9%
hit rate
0.276
Brier score
6 of 14 decided
Season to date
54.1%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
33 of 61 decided · 1 tie
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Cardinals at RamsLAR 73.0% pre-kickoff — final LAR 16–ARI 18
- Steelers at BuccaneersTB 66.7% pre-kickoff — final TB 19–PIT 26
- Texans at JaguarsJAX 62.0% pre-kickoff — final JAX 31–HOU 34
- Saints at GiantsNYG 56.7% pre-kickoff — final NYG 27–NO 34
- Ravens at BrownsBAL 56.6% pre-kickoff — final CLE 13–BAL 10
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Bills at RaidersBUF 65.5% pre-kickoff — final LV 30–BUF 33
- Seahawks at BroncosDEN 59.6% pre-kickoff — final DEN 17–SEA 14
- Commanders at 49ersSF 58.4% pre-kickoff — final SF 23–WSH 17
- Chargers at ChiefsKC 57.4% pre-kickoff — final KC 22–LAC 6
- Panthers at EaglesCAR 56.8% pre-kickoff — final PHI 14–CAR 25
| Game | Pre-kickoff | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks at Broncos Fri, Oct 16 | DEN 59.6% · SEA 40.4% | DEN 17–SEA 14 | Hit |
| Texans at Jaguars Sun, Oct 18 | JAX 62.0% · HOU 38.0% | JAX 31–HOU 34 | Miss |
| Steelers at Buccaneers Sun, Oct 18 | TB 66.7% · PIT 33.3% | TB 19–PIT 26 | Miss |
| Ravens at Browns Sun, Oct 18 | CLE 43.4% · BAL 56.6% | CLE 13–BAL 10 | Miss |
| Jets at Patriots Sun, Oct 18 | NE 48.2% · NYJ 51.8% | NE 26–NYJ 19 | Miss |
| Bears at Falcons Sun, Oct 18 | ATL 47.0% · CHI 53.0% | ATL 23–CHI 31 | Hit |
| Titans at Colts Sun, Oct 18 | IND 54.1% · TEN 45.9% | IND 20–TEN 26 | Miss |
| Panthers at Eagles Sun, Oct 18 | PHI 43.2% · CAR 56.8% | PHI 14–CAR 25 | Hit |
| Saints at Giants Sun, Oct 18 | NYG 56.7% · NO 43.3% | NYG 27–NO 34 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Rams Sun, Oct 18 | LAR 73.0% · ARI 27.0% | LAR 16–ARI 18 | Miss |
| Bills at Raiders Sun, Oct 18 | LV 34.5% · BUF 65.5% | LV 30–BUF 33 | Hit |
| Chargers at Chiefs Sun, Oct 18 | KC 57.4% · LAC 42.6% | KC 22–LAC 6 | Hit |
| Cowboys at Packers Mon, Oct 19 | GB 49.0% · DAL 51.0% | GB 23–DAL 13 | Miss |
| Commanders at 49ers Tue, Oct 20 | SF 58.4% · WSH 41.6% | SF 23–WSH 17 | Hit |
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