NFL2026 season
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders
Head-to-head win probability for NFL. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Next meeting
Sun, Nov 1, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
—
No decided games this season
Meetings graded
0
2026
Correct calls
0
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Philadelphia Eagles
- ELO Rating — Commanders ELO 1424 vs Eagles ELO 1582 (diff: -158)
Washington Commanders
- Injuries — Commanders healthier: 3 out, 1 doubtful vs Eagles 8 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage — Commanders are 1-1 at home this season; Eagles are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Rest Days — Commanders has rest advantage (13 days) over Eagles (14 days)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.

