NFL Intelligence Board
Upcoming NFL games ranked by model–market disagreement — where the model sees the largest gaps, why, and how confidence has shifted.
Injuries✦ · favors NO — Saints healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Steelers 3 out, 0 doubtful
Home Field Advantage✦ · favors CAR — Panthers are 1-1 at home this season; Buccaneers are 1-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
Injuries✦ · favors CIN — Bengals healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Ravens 4 out, 0 doubtful
Injuries✦ · favors TEN — Titans healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Browns 4 out, 0 doubtful
ELO Rating✦ · favors HOU — Texans ELO 1541 vs Giants ELO 1414 (diff: +127)
Injuries↑ · favors MIN — Vikings healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Colts 5 out, 0 doubtful
Home Field Advantage✦ · favors NYJ — Jets are 1-1 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
ELO Rating✦ · favors SF — Falcons ELO 1417 vs 49ers ELO 1596 (diff: -179)
ELO Rating✦ · favors DEN — Cardinals ELO 1412 vs Broncos ELO 1598 (diff: -185)
Home Field Advantage✦ · favors DET — Lions are 2-0 at home this season; Packers are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
Injuries✦ · favors LV — Raiders healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Rams 7 out, 0 doubtful
Model outputs are for informational purposes only. The model–market difference is shown in percentage points (model minus vig-normalized market).