NFL Intelligence Board
Upcoming NFL games ranked by model-market disagreement — where the model sees the most edge, why, and how confidence has shifted.
Home Field Advantage✦ · favors JAX — Jaguars are 2-0 at home this season; Eagles are 1-1 on the road
Injuries✦ · favors GB — Packers less affected by injuries: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Bears 4 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Bears players matter more
Injuries↑ · favors CIN — Bengals healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Dolphins 3 out, 0 doubtful
Injuries✦ · favors NYJ — Jets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Browns 2 out, 1 doubtful
ELO Rating✦ · favors MIN — Saints ELO 1461 vs Vikings ELO 1602 (diff: -141)
ELO Rating✦ · favors HOU — Titans ELO 1318 vs Texans ELO 1541 (diff: -222)
Home Field Advantage✦ · favors PIT — Steelers are 2-0 at home this season; Colts are 1-1 on the road
ELO Rating✦ · favors NE — Patriots ELO 1585 vs Raiders ELO 1415 (diff: +170)
Injuries✦ · favors NYG — Giants healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Commanders 4 out, 1 doubtful
Injuries↑ · favors DEN — Broncos less affected by injuries: 1 out, 2 doubtful vs Chargers 3 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Chargers players matter more
ELO Rating✦ · favors DET — Cardinals ELO 1412 vs Lions ELO 1544 (diff: -132)
Injuries✦ · favors SEA — Seahawks healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs 49ers 3 out, 2 doubtful
Injuries↓ · favors ATL — Falcons healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Ravens 1 out, 0 doubtful
Injuries✦ · favors LAR — Rams less affected by injuries: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Bills 0 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Bills players matter more
Home Field Advantage✦ · favors DEN — Broncos are 2-0 at home this season; Seahawks are 1-1 on the road
Model outputs are for informational purposes only. Edge is the difference between the model's win probability and vig-normalized market odds.