NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-05-25 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 40% across 5 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 70% — final OKC 103–SAS 111
- Defensive Efficiency (favors OKC)
- Home Field Advantage (favors OKC)
- Recent Form (favors OKC)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder at Spurs Mon, May 25 | SAS 41% • OKC 59% | SAS 103–OKC 82 | Miss |
| Knicks at Cavaliers Tue, May 26 | CLE 42% • NYK 58% | CLE 93–NYK 130 | Hit |
| Spurs at Thunder Wed, May 27 | OKC 70% • SAS 30% | OKC 127–SAS 114 | Hit |
| Thunder at Spurs Fri, May 29 | SAS 41% • OKC 59% | SAS 118–OKC 91 | Miss |
| Spurs at Thunder Sun, May 31 | OKC 70% • SAS 30% | OKC 103–SAS 111 | Miss |