Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks vs Washington Wizards head-to-head
Atlanta Hawks 92% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Hawks:
- Offensive Efficiency. Hawks offense (130.0 PPG) outpaces Wizards (115.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Hawks defense (103.0 Opp PPG) better than Wizards (114.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Hawks ELO 1596 vs Wizards ELO 1382 (diff: +215)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ATL 83% (−9)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ATL 83% (−9)
- If the rating edge were neutral: ATL 89% (−3)
- If the injury edge were neutral: ATL 89% (−3)
Win probability movement
ATL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Wizards at Hawks
The Wizards visit the Hawks at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Hawks a 92% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Wizards to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Hawks (high): Hawks offense (130.0 PPG) outpaces Wizards (115.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Hawks (high): Hawks defense (103.0 Opp PPG) better than Wizards (114.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Hawks (medium): Hawks ELO 1596 vs Wizards ELO 1382 (diff: +215)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Hawks have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Wizards have 3.
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- ELO RatingFavors Atlanta Hawks
- InjuriesFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Hawks offense (130.0 PPG) outpaces Wizards (115.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Hawks defense (103.0 Opp PPG) better than Wizards (114.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Hawks turnover differential (+0) vs Wizards (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Injury Report
Hawks
Wizards
Key Players
Wizards
Hawks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Atlanta Hawks
- Previous game89%ATL win probability
- Next game90%ATL win probability
Washington Wizards
- Previous game89%ATL win probability
- Next game64%OKC win probability
Other games on Nov 7, 2026
- 87%BOS win probability
- 61%PHI win probability
- 77%MIN win probability
- 76%TOR win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Hawks has a 92% win probability, while Wizards has a 8% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA.