Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz head-to-head
Dallas Mavericks 66% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Mavericks:
- Defensive Efficiency. Mavericks defense (116.5 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (121.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Mavericks offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Jazz (111.5 PPG)
- ELO Rating. Mavericks ELO 1423 vs Jazz ELO 1370 (diff: +53)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DAL 52% (−14)
- If the injury edge were neutral: DAL 78% (+12)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DAL 53% (−13)
- If the rating edge were neutral: DAL 64% (−2)
Win probability movement
DAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Jazz at Mavericks
The Jazz visit the Mavericks at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Mavericks a 66% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Jazz to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Mavericks (high): Mavericks defense (116.5 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (121.0 Opp PPG)
- Injuries favors the Jazz (high): Jazz healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Mavericks 6 out, 0 doubtful
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Mavericks (high): Mavericks offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Jazz (111.5 PPG)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Mavericks have 6 player(s) ruled out, while the Jazz have 2.
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Dallas Mavericks
- InjuriesFavors Utah Jazz
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Dallas Mavericks
- ELO RatingFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Mavericks defense (116.5 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (121.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Mavericks offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Jazz (111.5 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Mavericks turnover differential (+0) vs Jazz (+0)
Injuries
Jazz healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Mavericks 6 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Injury Report
Mavericks
Jazz
Key Players
Jazz
Mavericks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Dallas Mavericks
- Previous game60%SAS win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Utah Jazz
- Previous game79%NOP win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Other games on Nov 7, 2026
- 87%BOS win probability
- 92%ATL win probability
- 61%PHI win probability
- 77%MIN win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Mavericks has a 66% win probability, while Jazz has a 34% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.