San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns 61% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Suns:
- Defensive Efficiency. Suns defense (116.5 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (123.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Standard home-field edge for Suns (no home or road games yet this season)
- Injuries. Suns less affected by injuries: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Spurs 1 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Spurs players matter more
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Suns defeated the Spurs 102-98.
Our model predicted the Suns would win with 61% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a major factor: Suns defense (116.5 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (123.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a major factor: Spurs offense (116.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.0 PPG)
- ELO Rating favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Suns ELO 1508 vs Spurs ELO 1641 (diff: -133)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Suns have 1 player(s) ruled out, while the Spurs have 1.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Suns won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- ELO RatingFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Phoenix Suns
- InjuriesFavors Phoenix Suns
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Suns defense (116.5 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (123.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Spurs offense (116.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.0 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Suns turnover differential (+0) vs Spurs (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Spurs
Suns
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Suns has a 61% win probability, while Spurs has a 39% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ.