Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
Phoenix Suns 57% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Suns:
- Defensive Efficiency. Suns defense (110.3 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (114.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Suns offense (108.7 PPG) outpaces Spurs (107.7 PPG)
- Rest Days. Suns rest advantage (3 days rest) over Spurs (1 day rest)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Spurs defeated the Suns 123-103.
Our model predicted the Suns would win with 57% confidence, but the Spurs pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a major factor: Suns defense (110.3 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (114.7 Opp PPG)
- Injuries favored the Spurs and was a contributing factor: Spurs less affected by injuries: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Suns 1 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Suns players matter more
- Home Field Advantage favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Spurs are 0-1 at home this season; Suns are 0-2 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Spurs have 1 player(s) ruled out, while the Suns have 1.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Spurs won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- InjuriesFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Antonio Spurs
- ELO RatingFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Rest DaysFavors Phoenix Suns
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Suns defense (110.3 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (114.7 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Suns offense (108.7 PPG) outpaces Spurs (107.7 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Spurs turnover differential (+0) vs Suns (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Suns
Spurs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Spurs has a 43% win probability, while Suns has a 57% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX.