Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks 64% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Hawks:
- Offensive Efficiency. Hawks offense (121.7 PPG) outpaces Thunder (118.0 PPG)
- Injuries. Hawks less affected by injuries: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Thunder 0 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Thunder players matter more
- Defensive Efficiency. Hawks defense (121.7 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (122.0 Opp PPG)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hawks defeated the Thunder 113-110.
Our model predicted the Hawks would win with 64% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Hawks and was a major factor: Hawks offense (121.7 PPG) outpaces Thunder (118.0 PPG)
- ELO Rating favored the Thunder and was a contributing factor: Hawks ELO 1527 vs Thunder ELO 1643 (diff: -116)
- Injuries favored the Hawks and was a contributing factor: Hawks less affected by injuries: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Thunder 0 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Thunder players matt...
- The Hawks are without 1 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hawks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- InjuriesFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Rest DaysFavors Atlanta Hawks
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Hawks offense (121.7 PPG) outpaces Thunder (118.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Hawks defense (121.7 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (122.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Hawks turnover differential (+0) vs Thunder (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Thunder
Hawks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Hawks has a 64% win probability, while Thunder has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA.