New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies 79% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Grizzlies:
- Defensive Efficiency. Grizzlies defense (103.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (123.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Grizzlies offense (123.0 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (120.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Grizzlies are 2-1 at home this season; Pelicans are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Pelicans at Grizzlies
The Pelicans visit the Grizzlies at FedExForum in Memphis, TN in 2027-2028 NBA regular play.
Our model gives the Grizzlies a 79% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. The Pelicans will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Grizzlies (high): Grizzlies defense (103.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (123.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Grizzlies (medium): Grizzlies offense (123.0 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (120.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Grizzlies (low): Grizzlies are 2-1 at home this season; Pelicans are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- ELO RatingFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Grizzlies defense (103.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (123.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Grizzlies offense (123.0 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (120.0 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Grizzlies turnover differential (+0) vs Pelicans (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pelicans
Grizzlies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Grizzlies has a 79% win probability, while Pelicans has a 21% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at FedExForum in Memphis, TN.