Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers 68% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pacers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Pacers offense (120.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (115.3 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Pacers defense (115.5 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (119.0 Opp PPG)
- Rest Days. Pacers rest advantage (3 days rest) over Thunder (1 day rest)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Thunder defeated the Pacers 114-112.
Our model predicted the Pacers would win with 68% confidence, but the Thunder pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pacers and was a major factor: Pacers offense (120.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (115.3 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pacers and was a notable factor: Pacers defense (115.5 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (119.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favored the Thunder and was a notable factor: Thunder ELO 1618 vs Pacers ELO 1446 (diff: +172)
- The Pacers are without 1 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Thunder won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Indiana Pacers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Indiana Pacers
- ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Rest DaysFavors Indiana Pacers
- InjuriesFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Pacers offense (120.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (115.3 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Pacers defense (115.5 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (119.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Thunder turnover differential (+0) vs Pacers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pacers
Thunder
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Thunder has a 32% win probability, while Pacers has a 68% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK.