MLB report card: week of 2026-10-19 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
100.0%
hit rate
0.138
Brier score
2 of 2 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Guardians at RaysTB 74.6% pre-game — final TB 7–CLE 3
- Rays at BrewersMIL 54.1% pre-game — final MIL 3–TB 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians at Rays Tue, Oct 20 | TB 74.6% · CLE 25.4% | TB 7–CLE 3 | Hit |
| Rays at Brewers Sat, Oct 24 | MIL 54.1% · TB 45.9% | MIL 3–TB 2 | Hit |
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