MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-07-13 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 52% across 46 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 56% — final CLE 1–PIT 7
- Home Field Advantage (favors CLE)
- Rest Days (favors CLE)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets at Phillies Thu, Jul 16 | PHI 55% • NYM 45% | PHI 1–NYM 4 | Miss |
| Rays at Red Sox Fri, Jul 17 | BOS 54% • TB 46% | BOS 10–TB 0 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Yankees Fri, Jul 17 | NYY 55% • LAD 45% | NYY 1–LAD 2 | Miss |
| Rays at Red Sox Fri, Jul 17 | BOS 54% • TB 46% | BOS 5–TB 3 | Hit |
| Rangers at Braves Fri, Jul 17 | ATL 55% • TEX 45% | ATL 15–TEX 1 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Blue Jays Fri, Jul 17 | TOR 55% • CWS 45% | TOR 4–CWS 12 | Miss |
| Marlins at Brewers Fri, Jul 17 | MIL 56% • MIA 44% | MIL 2–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Twins at Cubs Sat, Jul 18 | CHC 55% • MIN 45% | CHC 2–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Astros Sat, Jul 18 | HOU 55% • BAL 45% | HOU 2–BAL 3 | Miss |
| Padres at Royals Sat, Jul 18 | KC 53% • SD 47% | KC 7–SD 6 | Hit |
| Reds at Rockies Sat, Jul 18 | COL 55% • CIN 45% | COL 2–CIN 7 | Miss |
| Tigers at Angels Sat, Jul 18 | LAA 55% • DET 45% | LAA 1–DET 2 | Miss |
| Nationals at Athletics Sat, Jul 18 | OAK 52% • WSH 48% | OAK 4–WSH 23 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Diamondbacks Sat, Jul 18 | ARI 55% • STL 45% | ARI 4–STL 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Mariners Sat, Jul 18 | SEA 53% • SF 47% | SEA 0–SF 7 | Miss |
| Pirates at Guardians Sat, Jul 18 | CLE 56% • PIT 44% | CLE 1–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Twins at Cubs Sat, Jul 18 | CHC 55% • MIN 45% | CHC 6–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Phillies Sat, Jul 18 | PHI 55% • NYM 45% | PHI 6–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Blue Jays Sat, Jul 18 | TOR 55% • CWS 45% | TOR 1–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Reds at Rockies Sat, Jul 18 | COL 55% • CIN 45% | COL 10–CIN 3 | Hit |
| Orioles at Astros Sat, Jul 18 | HOU 55% • BAL 45% | HOU 2–BAL 4 | Miss |
| Rays at Red Sox Sat, Jul 18 | BOS 54% • TB 46% | BOS 7–TB 6 | Hit |
| Rangers at Braves Sat, Jul 18 | ATL 55% • TEX 45% | ATL 6–TEX 7 | Miss |
| Padres at Royals Sat, Jul 18 | KC 53% • SD 47% | KC 6–SD 1 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Diamondbacks Sat, Jul 18 | ARI 55% • STL 45% | ARI 5–STL 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Brewers Sat, Jul 18 | MIL 56% • MIA 44% | MIL 8–MIA 6 | Hit |
| Pirates at Guardians Sat, Jul 18 | CLE 55% • PIT 45% | CLE 5–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Mariners Sun, Jul 19 | SEA 53% • SF 47% | SEA 4–SF 3 | Hit |
| Nationals at Athletics Sun, Jul 19 | OAK 52% • WSH 48% | OAK 15–WSH 1 | Hit |
| Tigers at Angels Sun, Jul 19 | LAA 55% • DET 45% | LAA 0–DET 7 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Blue Jays Sun, Jul 19 | TOR 55% • CWS 45% | TOR 0–CWS 3 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Yankees Sun, Jul 19 | NYY 55% • LAD 45% | NYY 2–LAD 8 | Miss |
| Mets at Phillies Sun, Jul 19 | PHI 55% • NYM 45% | PHI 1–NYM 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Red Sox Sun, Jul 19 | BOS 54% • TB 46% | BOS 6–TB 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Braves Sun, Jul 19 | ATL 55% • TEX 45% | ATL 8–TEX 5 | Hit |
| Pirates at Guardians Sun, Jul 19 | CLE 55% • PIT 45% | CLE 1–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Marlins at Brewers Sun, Jul 19 | MIL 56% • MIA 44% | MIL 3–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Astros Sun, Jul 19 | HOU 55% • BAL 45% | HOU 2–BAL 5 | Miss |
| Padres at Royals Sun, Jul 19 | KC 53% • SD 47% | KC 2–SD 19 | Miss |
| Twins at Cubs Sun, Jul 19 | CHC 55% • MIN 45% | CHC 10–MIN 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Rockies Sun, Jul 19 | COL 55% • CIN 45% | COL 6–CIN 9 | Miss |
| Nationals at Athletics Sun, Jul 19 | OAK 52% • WSH 48% | OAK 2–WSH 5 | Miss |
| Tigers at Angels Sun, Jul 19 | LAA 55% • DET 45% | LAA 3–DET 2 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Diamondbacks Sun, Jul 19 | ARI 55% • STL 45% | ARI 8–STL 7 | Hit |
| Giants at Mariners Sun, Jul 19 | SEA 53% • SF 47% | SEA 6–SF 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Yankees Sun, Jul 19 | NYY 55% • LAD 45% | NYY 2–LAD 1 | Hit |