MLB2026 season
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, Jun 14, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- NYY at TORSun, Jun 14, 2026TOR 55%NYY 8–3
- NYY at TORSat, Jun 13, 2026TOR 55%NYY 3–1
- NYY at TORFri, Jun 12, 2026TOR 55%TOR 5–8
- TOR at NYYThu, May 21, 2026NYY 55%TOR 2–0
- TOR at NYYWed, May 20, 2026NYY 55%TOR 2–1
- TOR at NYYTue, May 19, 2026NYY 55%NYY 4–5
- TOR at NYYMon, May 18, 2026NYY 55%NYY 6–7
- NYY at TORThu, Mar 19, 2026TOR 55%TOR 0–11
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
50%
4 of 8 decided games
Meetings graded
8
2026
Correct calls
4
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
New York Yankees
- Defensive Efficiency — Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Rays (4.0 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Yankees are 42-30 at home this season; Rays are 33-40 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
Toronto Blue Jays
- Defensive Efficiency — Blue Jays pitching/defense (4.3 RA/G) better than Reds (5.1 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Blue Jays are 36-34 at home this season; Reds are 33-40 on the road
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