MLB2026 season
Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, May 3, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- TOR at MINSun, May 3, 2026MIN 55%MIN 3–4
- TOR at MINSat, May 2, 2026MIN 55%TOR 11–4
- TOR at MINFri, May 1, 2026MIN 55%TOR 7–3
- TOR at MINThu, Apr 30, 2026MIN 55%MIN 1–7
- MIN at TORSun, Apr 12, 2026TOR 55%MIN 8–2
- MIN at TORSat, Apr 11, 2026TOR 55%MIN 7–4
- MIN at TORFri, Apr 10, 2026TOR 57%TOR 4–10
- TOR at MINFri, Mar 20, 2026MIN 55%TOR 2–1
- MIN at TORFri, Mar 13, 2026—TOR 1–6
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
38%
3 of 8 decided games
Meetings graded
8
2026
Correct calls
3
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Minnesota Twins
- Offensive Efficiency — Twins offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Rangers (4.2 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Twins are 38-31 at home this season; Rangers are 30-38 on the road
Toronto Blue Jays
- Defensive Efficiency — Blue Jays pitching/defense (4.3 RA/G) better than Reds (5.1 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Blue Jays are 36-34 at home this season; Reds are 33-40 on the road
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