MLB2026 season
Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Fri, Aug 7, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
100%
1 of 1 decided games
Meetings graded
1
2026
Correct calls
1
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Detroit Tigers
- Defensive Efficiency — Tigers pitching/defense (4.0 RA/G) better than Pirates (4.6 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Tigers are 36-32 at home this season; Pirates are 31-40 on the road
- ELO Rating — Tigers ELO 1529 vs Pirates ELO 1496 (diff: +33)
San Francisco Giants
- Home Field Advantage — Giants are 33-34 at home this season; Dodgers are 43-26 on the road
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.