NHL weekly recap: week of 2026-05-18 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 20% across 5 games; season-to-date: 53%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 62% — final COL 1–VGK 3
- Home Field Advantage (favors COL)
- Recent Form (favors COL)
- Defensive Efficiency (favors COL)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadiens at Sabres Mon, May 18 | BUF 56% • MTL 44% | BUF 2–MTL 3 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Avalanche Thu, May 21 | COL 61% • VGK 39% | COL 2–VGK 4 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Hurricanes Fri, May 22 | CAR 54% • MTL 46% | CAR 2–MTL 6 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Avalanche Sat, May 23 | COL 62% • VGK 38% | COL 1–VGK 3 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Hurricanes Sat, May 23 | CAR 56% • MTL 44% | CAR 3–MTL 2 | Hit |