Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Wild:
- Home Field Advantage. Wild are 5-1 at home this season; Lightning are 3-4 on the road
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Lightning at Wild
The Lightning visit the Wild at Grand Casino Arena in Saint Paul, MN in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.
Our model gives the Wild a 56% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Lightning to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Wild (medium): Wild are 5-1 at home this season; Lightning are 3-4 on the road
- Recent Form favors the Lightning (low): Lightning (7-3) in better form than Wild (6-3)
- ELO Rating favors the Lightning (low): Wild ELO 1508 vs Lightning ELO 1536 (diff: -28)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Minnesota Wild
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Lightning
Wild
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Wild has a 56% win probability, while Lightning has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Grand Casino Arena in Saint Paul, MN.