Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

NFLWeek 1 • regular • 2025

completed

Colts

Indianapolis

Dolphins

Miami

IND 56%44% MIA

Prediction Confidence:

Moderate

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VenueLucas Oil Stadium

Indianapolis, IN

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Dolphins (away)

Colts (home)

44%

Win probability

56%

High-impact factors

Players ruled out

Colts won 33-8

Colts won in a blowout

Prediction CorrectWe predicted Colts at 56%

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

MIA

IND

Home Field Advantage

Favours MIA|Favours IND

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Team Performance

Low impactHow team performanceworks →

4 factors

Recent Form

No recent form data available

Neutral

Offensive Efficiency

No offensive stats available for comparison

Neutral

Defensive Efficiency

No defensive stats available for comparison

Neutral

Turnover Differential

No turnover stats available for comparison

Neutral

Injuries & Personnel

Low impactHow injuries & personnelworks →

1 factor

Injuries

Similar injury situations: Indianapolis Colts (0 out) vs Miami Dolphins (0 out)

Neutral

Home & Venue

Medium impactHow home & venueworks →

1 factor

Home Field Advantage

Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)

Colts

Weather & Conditions

Low impactHow weather & conditionsworks →

1 factor

Weather Impact

Indoor venue - weather not a factor

Neutral

Historical

Low impactHow historicalworks →

1 factor

Head to Head

No recent head-to-head history available

Neutral

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.0.0 • Calculated: 2/27/2026, 10:41:16 PM

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NFL Win Probability

How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics

4 min readRead article

Deep Dive

Home Field Advantage

How playing at home affects NFL win probability

3 min readRead article

Deep Dive

NFL Weather Impact

How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Colts has a 56% win probability, while Dolphins has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.

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