NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-05-18 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 71% across 7 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 68% — final OKC 115–SAS 122
- Defensive Efficiency (favors OKC)
- Home Field Advantage (favors OKC)
- Recent Form (favors OKC)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers at Pistons Mon, May 18 | DET 68% • CLE 32% | DET 94–CLE 125 | Miss |
| Spurs at Thunder Tue, May 19 | OKC 68% • SAS 32% | OKC 115–SAS 122 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Knicks Wed, May 20 | NYK 66% • CLE 34% | NYK 115–CLE 104 | Hit |
| Spurs at Thunder Thu, May 21 | OKC 70% • SAS 30% | OKC 122–SAS 113 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Knicks Fri, May 22 | NYK 67% • CLE 33% | NYK 109–CLE 93 | Hit |
| Thunder at Spurs Sat, May 23 | SAS 41% • OKC 59% | SAS 108–OKC 123 | Hit |
| Knicks at Cavaliers Sun, May 24 | CLE 42% • NYK 58% | CLE 108–NYK 121 | Hit |