NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-05-11 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 67% across 6 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 70% — final DET 113–CLE 117
- Defensive Efficiency (favors DET)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors CLE)
- Home Field Advantage (favors DET)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pistons at Cavaliers Tue, May 12 | CLE 40% • DET 60% | CLE 112–DET 103 | Miss |
| Thunder at Lakers Tue, May 12 | LAL 24% • OKC 76% | LAL 110–OKC 115 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Spurs Wed, May 13 | SAS 70% • MIN 30% | SAS 126–MIN 97 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Pistons Thu, May 14 | DET 70% • CLE 30% | DET 113–CLE 117 | Miss |
| Pistons at Cavaliers Fri, May 15 | CLE 40% • DET 60% | CLE 94–DET 115 | Hit |
| Spurs at Timberwolves Sat, May 16 | MIN 40% • SAS 60% | MIN 109–SAS 139 | Hit |