Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder 60% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Thunder:
- Offensive Efficiency. Thunder offense (118.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (108.7 PPG)
- ELO Rating. Thunder ELO 1643 vs Suns ELO 1522 (diff: +121)
- Home Field Advantage. Thunder are 0-2 at home this season; Suns are 0-2 on the road
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Suns at Thunder
The Suns visit the Thunder at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK in 2027-2028 NBA regular play.
Our model gives the Thunder a 60% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Suns will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Suns (high): Suns defense (110.3 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (122.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Thunder (high): Thunder offense (118.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (108.7 PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Thunder (medium): Thunder ELO 1643 vs Suns ELO 1522 (diff: +121)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Suns defense (110.3 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (122.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Thunder offense (118.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (108.7 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Thunder turnover differential (+0) vs Suns (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Suns
Thunder
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Thunder has a 60% win probability, while Suns has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK.