New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks
New Orleans Pelicans 58% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Pelicans:
- Defensive Efficiency. Pelicans defense (119.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (125.0 Opp PPG)
- Injuries. Pelicans less affected by injuries: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Mavericks 0 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Mavericks players matter more
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pelicans defeated the Mavericks 101-97.
Our model predicted the Pelicans would win with 58% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Mavericks and was a major factor: Mavericks offense (124.5 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (117.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pelicans and was a major factor: Pelicans defense (119.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (125.0 Opp PPG)
- Injuries favored the Pelicans and was a major factor: Pelicans less affected by injuries: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Mavericks 0 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Mavericks playe...
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pelicans won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- InjuriesFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Rest DaysFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Mavericks offense (124.5 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (117.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Pelicans defense (119.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (125.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Mavericks turnover differential (+0) vs Pelicans (+0)
Injuries
Pelicans less affected by injuries: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Mavericks 0 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Mavericks players matter more
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pelicans
Mavericks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mavericks has a 42% win probability, while Pelicans has a 58% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.