Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans
Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans head-to-head
Minnesota Timberwolves 77% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Timberwolves:
- Defensive Efficiency. Timberwolves defense (99.5 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (121.5 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Timberwolves offense (123.0 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (119.5 PPG)
- ELO Rating. Pelicans ELO 1436 vs Timberwolves ELO 1566 (diff: -130)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIN 60% (−17)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIN 68% (−9)
- If the rating edge were neutral: MIN 73% (−4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIN 79% (+2)
Win probability movement
NOP home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Timberwolves at Pelicans
The Timberwolves visit the Pelicans at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Timberwolves a 77% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Pelicans to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Timberwolves (high): Timberwolves defense (99.5 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (121.5 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Timberwolves (medium): Timberwolves offense (123.0 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (119.5 PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Timberwolves (medium): Pelicans ELO 1436 vs Timberwolves ELO 1566 (diff: -130)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Pelicans have 1 player(s) ruled out, while the Timberwolves have 1.
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- ELO RatingFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- InjuriesFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Timberwolves defense (99.5 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (121.5 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Timberwolves offense (123.0 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (119.5 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Pelicans turnover differential (+0) vs Timberwolves (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Injury Report
Pelicans
Timberwolves
Key Players
Timberwolves
Pelicans
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
New Orleans Pelicans
- Previous game79%NOP win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Previous game79%MIN win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Other games on Nov 7, 2026
- 87%BOS win probability
- 92%ATL win probability
- 61%PHI win probability
- 76%TOR win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Pelicans has a 23% win probability, while Timberwolves has a 77% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA.