MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-10-12 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 33% across 9 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 74% — final TB 3–CLE 7
- Injuries (favors TB)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors TB)
- Home Field Advantage (favors TB)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers at Brewers Mon, Oct 12 | MIL 43% • LAD 57% | MIL 2–LAD 1 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Brewers Mon, Oct 12 | MIL 42% • LAD 58% | MIL 7–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Guardians at Rays Tue, Oct 13 | TB 74% • CLE 26% | TB 3–CLE 7 | Miss |
| Guardians at Rays Wed, Oct 14 | TB 74% • CLE 26% | TB 3–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Dodgers Thu, Oct 15 | LAD 67% • MIL 33% | LAD 2–MIL 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Guardians Thu, Oct 15 | CLE 35% • TB 65% | CLE 3–TB 2 | Miss |
| Brewers at Dodgers Fri, Oct 16 | LAD 66% • MIL 34% | LAD 4–MIL 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Guardians Sun, Oct 18 | CLE 35% • TB 65% | CLE 3–TB 7 | Hit |
| Rays at Guardians Sun, Oct 18 | CLE 35% • TB 65% | CLE 1–TB 3 | Hit |