PlayDecoded
Menu
MLB2026 season

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals

Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.

Most recent meeting

Thu, Jul 23, 2026

Cardinals logo
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
6
vs
Diamondbacks logo
ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks
10
STL 55%45% ARI
Open the game page

This season

2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.

Model record on this matchup

Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.

Hit rate
43%
3 of 7 decided games
Meetings graded
7
2026
Correct calls
3
Favorite won

Factor comparison

Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.

Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Offensive Efficiency — Diamondbacks offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Padres (4.4 R/G)
St. Louis Cardinals
  • Injuries — Cardinals healthier (6 out, 0 doubtful) vs Brewers (6 out, 0 doubtful)

Get the weekly model report card

Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.