NHL weekly recap: week of 2026-09-28 (2026-27)
Hit rate this week: 53% across 36 games; season-to-date: 59%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 72% — final VAN 7–EDM 9
- Injuries (favors VAN)
- Recent Form (favors VAN)
- ELO Rating (favors EDM)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers at Hurricanes Tue, Sep 29 | CAR 65% • FLA 35% | CAR 0–FLA 1 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Maple Leafs Tue, Sep 29 | TOR 41% • MTL 59% | TOR 2–MTL 3 | Hit |
| Rangers at Bruins Wed, Sep 30 | BOS 49% • NYR 51% | BOS 3–NYR 0 | Miss |
| Canucks at Oilers Wed, Sep 30 | EDM 49% • VAN 51% | EDM 5–VAN 6 | Hit |
| Blackhawks at Golden Knights Wed, Sep 30 | VGK 63% • CHI 37% | VGK 5–CHI 2 | Hit |
| Islanders at Maple Leafs Wed, Sep 30 | TOR 40% • NYI 60% | TOR 2–NYI 1 | Miss |
| Penguins at Flyers Wed, Sep 30 | PHI 69% • PIT 31% | PHI 0–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Kings at Avalanche Thu, Oct 1 | COL 47% • LAK 53% | COL 8–LAK 4 | Miss |
| Sabres at Blue Jackets Thu, Oct 1 | CBJ 73% • BUF 27% | CBJ 6–BUF 3 | Hit |
| Flyers at Devils Thu, Oct 1 | NJD 66% • PHI 34% | NJD 3–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Lightning at Rangers Thu, Oct 1 | NYR 64% • TBL 36% | NYR 5–TBL 1 | Hit |
| Wild at Predators Fri, Oct 2 | NSH 71% • MIN 29% | NSH 1–MIN 3 | Miss |
| Kraken at Flames Fri, Oct 2 | CGY 57% • SEA 43% | CGY 1–SEA 6 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Utah Hockey Club Fri, Oct 2 | UTA 70% • CHI 30% | UTA 6–CHI 0 | Hit |
| Panthers at Sharks Fri, Oct 2 | SJS 38% • FLA 62% | SJS 4–FLA 3 | Miss |
| Oilers at Canucks Fri, Oct 2 | VAN 72% • EDM 28% | VAN 7–EDM 9 | Miss |
| Rangers at Red Wings Fri, Oct 2 | DET 49% • NYR 51% | DET 0–NYR 2 | Hit |
| Capitals at Hurricanes Fri, Oct 2 | CAR 59% • WSH 41% | CAR 2–WSH 5 | Miss |
| Bruins at Jets Sat, Oct 3 | WPG 43% • BOS 57% | WPG 3–BOS 4 | Hit |
| Blues at Stars Sat, Oct 3 | DAL 48% • STL 52% | DAL 0–STL 4 | Hit |
| Ducks at Golden Knights Sat, Oct 3 | VGK 65% • ANA 35% | VGK 3–ANA 4 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Blue Jackets Sat, Oct 3 | CBJ 65% • UTA 35% | CBJ 1–UTA 4 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Sabres Sat, Oct 3 | BUF 50% • CHI 50% | BUF 4–CHI 3 | Miss |
| Kraken at Oilers Sat, Oct 3 | EDM 38% • SEA 62% | EDM 3–SEA 1 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Flyers Sat, Oct 3 | PHI 48% • CAR 52% | PHI 2–CAR 3 | Hit |
| Capitals at Lightning Sat, Oct 3 | TBL 41% • WSH 59% | TBL 3–WSH 1 | Miss |
| Senators at Maple Leafs Sat, Oct 3 | TOR 47% • OTT 53% | TOR 2–OTT 3 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Penguins Sat, Oct 3 | PIT 61% • MTL 39% | PIT 6–MTL 5 | Hit |
| Devils at Islanders Sat, Oct 3 | NYI 52% • NJD 48% | NYI 6–NJD 0 | Hit |
| Stars at Predators Sun, Oct 4 | NSH 71% • DAL 29% | NSH 2–DAL 1 | Hit |
| Bruins at Wild Sun, Oct 4 | MIN 54% • BOS 46% | MIN 4–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Blues at Avalanche Sun, Oct 4 | COL 54% • STL 46% | COL 6–STL 1 | Hit |
| Kings at Sharks Sun, Oct 4 | SJS 53% • LAK 47% | SJS 5–LAK 4 | Hit |
| Flames at Canucks Sun, Oct 4 | VAN 49% • CGY 51% | VAN 4–CGY 1 | Miss |
| Jets at Red Wings Sun, Oct 4 | DET 52% • WPG 48% | DET 2–WPG 3 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Rangers Sun, Oct 4 | NYR 63% • UTA 37% | NYR 4–UTA 2 | Hit |